“People, understandably, are having trouble believing in the polls,” Nate Silver acknowledged to New York Times columnist Ezra Klein.
The post Nate Silver Suggests ‘Momentous’ Midterms Might Mark ‘the End of the Trump Era’ first appeared on Mediaite.
Man there is nothing we love more than counting our chickens before they hatch, huh?
Strong polls encourage people to vote. Weak polls discourage participation and donations.
Just this year - Michigan primary - one campaign says their donations plummeted when fake polls claimed they were far behind.
ha oh is the coin flipping on the uniparty! that must mean theyre going to switch to the rainbow colored genocide bombs instead soon. “democracy”
The worst part of right before an election is all the accounts spamming “don’t vote it doesn’t matter” out of nowhere…
Ah yes famously reliable Nate Silver lol
He gave Trump 2016 more odds than anyone else, the model probability was 1/3 chance, up to polling issues.
All Nate Silver’s models did was run a hierarchical Bayesian regression model with polls weighted by demographics and their forecast accuracy on previous elections.
Yeah this is just a horrible take. 538 was the only one I remember actively cautioning that a Trump win was possible and a 20% chance means you win one in five times you run the election. People who say they were notoriously wrong, frankly, weren’t paying attention.
EDIT to correct typo.
