If Anthropic doesn’t do well with their IPO, it’ll all come crashing down temporarily in Q2 2027 as they run out of funds. Maybe Q3.
OpenAI is in a similar position: If they don’t have an IPO by Q2 2027, they’ll run out of money too.
I suspect that if Anthropic’s IPO doesn’t do well, the whole market around AI will have a series of weekly “corrections”, losing much of their value as China laughs all the way to the bank.
Anthropic will likely do the same trick Musk did to shift his debt onto the public- They’ll get instant inclusion into the S&P500 which requires pension funds and index funds held by everyone with a 401K to buy their stock.
Yeah, the trick was only with the NASDAQ 100 as the SP500 ended up saying no to changing their index rules to allow inclusion of SpaceX stock so shortly after IPO.
The point however does stand for people whose pension and index funds are invested in or follow the NASDAQ 100 index as what was predict would happen to the value of those shares after IPO (and the reason why the indice before did not include stock so shortly after IPO) happened: the price spiked immediatelly after IPO just as the funds tracking the indice were forced to buy that stock, quickly collapsed afterwards and is still now below even IPO price (and well below the post IPO price spike).
It’ll be harder, part of how Musk pulled that grift is by tying it into spacex and pointing at actual launches and things. It will be a lot harder for anthropic to do that with only one core business.
We will see, the main problem is the long term agreements in place. All the hardware is already pre-ordered. If they break the agreements then there will be a sudden flood into the market again.
Except all the preorder they’ve been tooling for is for hbm ram that PCs can’t use. So even if the data center frenzy stops, it will be over a year before consumer ram is made in volume again.
it will be over a year before consumer ram is made in volume again.
But why would they do that? Thwyre currently generating triple more profit from consumer ram while selling half as much. They will simply leave those volumes as is and continue making the same money.
Memory producers are all a cartel just like hard drive manufacturers that conveniently have a “flood” or some other disaster that stuffed up HDD supply every 2-3 years on the dot, giving them an excuse to hike prices 20%.
It won’t be a flood into the market. The hardware makers are stuck in their contracts and I’m sure they’d much rather sell those GPUs/RAM on the open market since it’s worth a lot more now than when the contract was signed.
It’ll change nothing for about six months, then we’d see some temporary price drops until non-AI business start buying them up to do local inference.
It’s an interesting conundrum…there will still be demand for compute, so the open question is: who’s buying up the datacenters and racks when the bubble bursts?
If Anthropic doesn’t do well with their IPO, it’ll all come crashing down temporarily in Q2 2027 as they run out of funds. Maybe Q3.
OpenAI is in a similar position: If they don’t have an IPO by Q2 2027, they’ll run out of money too.
I suspect that if Anthropic’s IPO doesn’t do well, the whole market around AI will have a series of weekly “corrections”, losing much of their value as China laughs all the way to the bank.
Anthropic will likely do the same trick Musk did to shift his debt onto the public- They’ll get instant inclusion into the S&P500 which requires pension funds and index funds held by everyone with a 401K to buy their stock.
SpaceX didnt get into SP500
Yeah, the trick was only with the NASDAQ 100 as the SP500 ended up saying no to changing their index rules to allow inclusion of SpaceX stock so shortly after IPO.
The point however does stand for people whose pension and index funds are invested in or follow the NASDAQ 100 index as what was predict would happen to the value of those shares after IPO (and the reason why the indice before did not include stock so shortly after IPO) happened: the price spiked immediatelly after IPO just as the funds tracking the indice were forced to buy that stock, quickly collapsed afterwards and is still now below even IPO price (and well below the post IPO price spike).
It’ll be harder, part of how Musk pulled that grift is by tying it into spacex and pointing at actual launches and things. It will be a lot harder for anthropic to do that with only one core business.
We will see, the main problem is the long term agreements in place. All the hardware is already pre-ordered. If they break the agreements then there will be a sudden flood into the market again.
Except all the preorder they’ve been tooling for is for hbm ram that PCs can’t use. So even if the data center frenzy stops, it will be over a year before consumer ram is made in volume again.
But why would they do that? Thwyre currently generating triple more profit from consumer ram while selling half as much. They will simply leave those volumes as is and continue making the same money. Memory producers are all a cartel just like hard drive manufacturers that conveniently have a “flood” or some other disaster that stuffed up HDD supply every 2-3 years on the dot, giving them an excuse to hike prices 20%.
It won’t be a flood into the market. The hardware makers are stuck in their contracts and I’m sure they’d much rather sell those GPUs/RAM on the open market since it’s worth a lot more now than when the contract was signed.
It’ll change nothing for about six months, then we’d see some temporary price drops until non-AI business start buying them up to do local inference.
It’s an interesting conundrum…there will still be demand for compute, so the open question is: who’s buying up the datacenters and racks when the bubble bursts?
Governments.
Plenty will fall off the back of a truck though.